The Sporting Orange Divisional Round Preview

This weekend is truly the best weekend of football this season. Think about it, the most boring game features one of the game’s most beloved quarterbacks playing his mentor. Two of the games are rematches of great matchups and the fourth has one team going for history against a bunch of beasts (beasts in the polite manner, of course). All lines from Covers.com.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers -9
Neither of these teams has a running game. Ryan Grant does provide something for Green Bay, but he like many of the Packers, has zero playoff experience. The most important thing is that the Packers need to keep Favre upright. The Seahawks have a very good front seven. If they don’t get pressure though, their average secondary can get lit up. Plus, an upright Favre controls the game, rather than the swashbuckler who’ll chuck it and see what happens. By the way, the last time I heard ‘swashbuckler’ used so much, I was watching the Bucs’ cheerleaders in Tampa Stadium.
Pick: Green Bay 24 - Seattle 17

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots -13.5
If the Pats had played Pittsburgh or Tennessee in the divisional round, this game would not be as fun. Instead they get the toughest dudes south of the Boston suburbs. After Paul Spicer’s postgame interview I’m firmly on the Jags bandwagon. Since there is no video of it, I’ll paraphrase.
“I told the guys in the locker room, YOU GOT TO EMPTY YO TANK! DUUUUUUUUUVAL!”
That’s right folks, he actually said ‘Duuuuval” on live television.
If the Jags can get some pressure on Brady, they’ll have a shot at the upset. They also have to play well in the secondary. I expect Reg Nelson to destroy Randy Moss earlier in the game to increase the odds of stopping the Pats.
On offense for the Jags, they can run the ball, which should scare the Pats defense. If the Jags can run, they keep Brady off the field and can win.
All that said, this has all the makings of one of those games the Pats grind out for the win.
Pick: New England 20 - Jacksonville 13

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts -9.5
This pick is almost too easy. Manning has Harrison back and the Colts don’t lose at home. Rivers is without Gates and Tomlinson will be facing eight in the box every down. Oh by the way, the Colts are your defending Super Bowl Champions. They’ll have a legacy to protect next week in Foxborough.
Pick: Indianapolis 31 - San Diego 17

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys -9
This seems to be the game everyone is picking for the upset. Here’s the thing; Dallas is better. In the two Giants-Cowboys games this season, it wasn’t just a matter of Dallas making more plays. They have more talent.
Eli has improved as a quarterback and I expect him to have a good game, but it’s the Giants defense. Against the Bucs, the Giants looked like world beaters because the Bucs lacked receivers and an every down running back. The Cowboys have a two-RB system, but Barber and Jones are a lot better than Ernest Graham and Mike Pittman. As the Patriots game proved, the Giants secondary will eventually break down. Even if Owens is not healthy, Romo still has Witten and Crayton. The Giants will blitz the hell out of Romo, but I think that the Cowboys will be able to tread water enough to find the holes. This will be the highest scoring game of the weekend.
Pick: Cowboys 31 - Giants 27

Last week: 2-2, 1-3 ATS